FAQ's about the Melbourne Cup - statistics, trends & lead up races:
Q. Do barriers matter?
A. Not so much, but it depends on the racing style of the horse. If the horse likes to race forward (and in the Cup this is often the best plan) then obviously drawing barrier 24 isn't going to help a great deal. However, the horses do have the entire length of the straight to sort themselves out after the start, so just about any barrier will do. Trainers always prefer to draw inside barrier 12, however there is a slight margin of more winners who have drawn outside barrier 13. In the past twenty years, five winners have drawn outside barrier 19.
Q. Can a three year old win the Cup?
A. Not since Skipton in 1941 have we seen a 3yo salute. By far the majority of winners are aged four or five years.
Q. Best lead up races to follow?
A. The Caulfield Cup usually offers the best guide to the Melbourne Cup as it is also run under handicap conditions, around half of the last 30 winners of the Melbourne Cup also started in the Caulfield Cup. Many horses have run the Double, in recent times Let's Elope, Doriemus, Might & Power and Ethereal, and many other runners to place in the Melbourne Cup. The Moonee Valley Gold Cup and the Mackinnon Stakes have also proved to be significant lead up races. There have been 58 winners or placegetters in both the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes to go on and win the Cup. The last horse to win the SAAB Quality and go on to win the Cup was Brew in 2000. The Geelong Cup has also become a race to follow in recent years. Media Puzzle won the Geelong Cup - Melbourne Cup double in 2002, and Geelong Cup winner On A Jeune ran second to Makybe Diva in 2005. A horse who ran 1, 2 or 3 in the previous years Melbourne Cup is considered a chance to at least place again. However, horses who ran in the previous Cup and were unplaced rarely turn that form around the following year.
Q. How many top weights have won?
Not many, the legendary Makybe Diva was top weight with 58 kgs when she completed her historic hat trick of wins in 2005. Before that, the last top weight to win was Rising Fast in 1954. Carbine (1890) carried a massive 65.5kgs to victory, a record weight which is likely to remain. 85% of the winners since 1986 have carried between 50.5kgs and 57.5kgs.
Q. So apart from reading the form, anything else we can use to pick a winner?
A. For the non-scientific among us, Bay coloured horses have the best record in the race, followed by Brown horses and Chestnuts. Horses with single word names have won more times than double barrelled or three worded names. The worst saddlecloth is number 21, the best is number 1. Blue, Black and White are the most successful jockey colours, and jockeys with red caps have won 27 times.
Q. Internationals in the Cup - any hope?
A. Well, the Japanese duo Delta Blues and Pop Rock finished first and second in 2006, Irish stayer Vinnie Roe was second in 2004, Goldolphin runner Beekeeper was second in 2002 and of course Irish stayer Vintage Crop swam home to victory in the rain in 1995. In 2007 European entries Purple Moon and Mahler ran second and third. All up it's enough to suggest they must be considered carefully when studying the form. Interesting to note that of the last 10 imports to carry 58kgs or more only Vinnie Roe has run a place.
Go to final declarations Melbourne Cup 2008
Guide to the Melbourne Cup has the latest news, trackwork buzz and betting information.
Track Bias Report gives you the likely pattern of racing for Melbourne Cup day.