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Our guide to Melbourne Cup betting could help you find the winner of the Cup with history, statistics & betting strategies. (But these are just our opinions, if you want real advice ask an expert).
So, there are many variables to consider when trying to find the winner of any horse race, but after hours studying the Melbourne Cup form you may find every runner will appear to have some chance of at least running a place.
How do you narrow down a field of 24 runners to your top two or three - or four - ok, how about your top eight?
There is less than 72 hours between the announcement of the final field and getting your bets on, so you've got some serious form study to do:
Age, Sex & Weight?
Four and five year old male horses have won more Melbourne Cups than any other age and gender. This is mainly because the Cup is a handicap and horses in this age bracket are generally more kindly weighted than older horses who have more wins on record and therefore carry more weight.
Of the 151 winners of the Melbourne Cup to date there have been 38 4yo Males, 40 5yo males and 26 6yo males, 13 mares aged between 7 and 4, 3 fillies and 10 male horses aged over 7. The last top weight to win also carried the highest weight carried to victory by a mare - 58kgs. That horse was Makybe Diva in 2005, and yes, she was a freak.
3 year old horses have not won in the modern era of the Cup, the last 3yo to win was Skipton in 1941. Statistically, a male horse aged 4, 5 or 6 is the usually way to go.
Locals v Internationals?
With the VRC offering healthy incentives to entice international runners to participate in the Cup (for reasons best known to themselves) there is sure to be a portion of the field whose form in other countries is hard to line up against our local hopes. The last time runners from Japan were permitted to participate (prior to the equine flu outbreak) they ran the quinella. Not that surprising, since the world track record for the Cup distance of 3200m (3:13.4) is held by Japanese horse Deep Impact. Quarantine restrictions are still causing problems for Japanese horses, but if any of them make it into the big race they must be carefully considered.
Some Irish & British horses have performed well in the event and there have been many to run a place, although an equal amount of their runners have also failed to carry their usually high weights. Of the European horses that have competed in the Melbourne Cup there has been two winners from Ireland (Dermot Weld's Vintage Crop & Media Puzzle) and two from France, although they are part-owned by Australians (Amercain & Dunaden). Godolphin always brings a classy team but has had little luck in recent years. With several placegetters already, they'll get it right one day. Lately the Cumani stable has been bringing over a handful of underperforming hacks in order to offload them in Australia after the Cup, still trading on their close second with Bauer in 2008. By the way, Australians consider New Zealand to be a part of Australia when it comes to racehorses, so they don't count as Internationals as far as we're concerned.
As for the best of the local trainers, it is an unusual Melbourne Cup that doesn't include at least one horse trained by the master J B Cummings. Now in his eighties, Bart is the Cup King and is looking for his bakers dozen of Melbourne Cups. Horses trained by Robert Hickmott should also be watched, his boss Lloyd Williams always enters plenty of runners and winning the Melbourne Cup appears to be his main motivation for living. Other trainers to watch include Mark Kavanagh who won with Shocking in 2009. In the last couple of years his runners have shown promise early in the season but struggled when we got to the pointy end of proceedings (which could be why he's often seen around the track with a face like a slapped arse). Our first lady of racing is Gai Waterhouse, although her horses tend to perform better in Sydney. One of the best things about this race is that any trainer with a horse that qualifies has a shot at equine immortality, from the most cashed-up horse training corporation to a battler from the bush.
Lead Up Form?
There are a few races which have been significant pointers to success in the Cup. The Mackinnon Stakes & Lexus Stakes, which are run at Flemington on the Saturday before the Cup are, for many, the last chance to secure a place in the Melbourne Cup final field. While not as popular today as it has been in the past to run Melbourne Cup horses on this day, any horse that does race on the Saturday before the Cup, regardless of where it finishes, must be taken into account when studying the form. Half the last 40 Cup winners had their lead up start in the Mackinnon and 2009 winner Shocking won the previous Saturday's Lexus Stakes. The Geelong Cup is becoming a significant lead-up race as well, with the 2010 winner Americain starting there for an easy win before cruising home in the big one and Dunaden following the same course in 2011.
The other significant lead up race for the Melbourne Cup is the Caulfield Cup. A prestigious race in it's own right, in the last 40 years around 60% of Cup winners also started at Caulfield. It's considered a lead up race (with a handy $2.5mill. in the prize pool) for runners headed to the Melbourne Cup so they're only expected to run well, although 11 horses have run the double in the same year with the last being Ethereal in 2001.
Other important form races to look at when reading the Melbourne Cup form guide are the Herbert Power Stakes, Moonee Valley Cup, Lexus Stakes, Sydney Cup, Adelaide Cup & Brisbane Cup. Happy punting in the 2012 Melbourne Cup!
Need more Melbourne Cup Facts & Figures? Go HERE for statistics and details on the winners from the last 30 years of Melbourne Cups.
Want a formula to help you find the Trifecta of the 2011 Melbourne Cup?
Betting on the 2012 Melbourne Cup is available now at Sportsbet.
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