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If you're prepared to put in some time studying the form, our formula could help you find the Melbourne Cup trifecta in 2012.
If you'd rather someone else did the hard work for you (or you're just interested to hear another opinion), subscribe to our free EMAIL UPDATES and you will receive Trifecta and First Four selections for the 2012 Melbourne Cup, as well as free tips for all the other feature races this Spring Carnival, from our resident form analyst Chris Eagle at Australian Racing Report.
Melbourne Cup Trifecta Formula.
So, you're looking for a result on the punt in this years Melbourne Cup - perhaps hoping for a share in a dividend like the record Melbourne Cup trifecta of $61867.90 which we saw in 1993 when international raider Vintage Crop won the prize?
The possible number of combinations for the trifecta in the Melbourne Cup (the first three horses out of a maximum field of 24) is 12144. If you're thinking about the First Four, there are a mere 255024 combinations to go at - you can't back them all and expect to make a profit, but if you back at least 6 horses in your trifecta (and possibly consider Flexi-betting) you will give yourself a fighting chance of success.
Trifecta Bet Types.
If you are not familiar with how to place a Trifecta, here is how it works: Trifecta is paid on the first three horses to cross the line. There are three ways to construct your bet:
Straight Out: Choose the three horses in the order they finish; first, second & third.
Boxed: Three or more selections to finish in any order.
Multiple: One or more horses to finish first, two or more horses to finish second and two or more horses to finish third.
A Box Trifecta with 6 selections will cost $120 for 100% return of the dividend, but you can use Flexi-betting to reduce the cost and receive a percentage of the full dividend.
In 2009, 10% of the Trifecta dividend ($9320.50) would still have returned $932! In 2010, the trifecta dividend was $306.60 on the Victorian TAB (but a profit is still a profit). You may find after using the Formula (see below) there are 7 or 8 horses which need to be included. With Flexi-betting you can do what's necessary without spending a fortune - Flexi-betting is available from Sportsbet.
In a multiple Trifecta, consider choosing your best selections to come first (maybe just 2 or 3 of them) and all your remaining selections to finish second or third. Reducing your top line to just a couple of selections lowers the cost quite dramatically and allows you to include more runners for a bigger percentage.
If there is one horse you are absolutely sure is going to win, you could consider making your multiple Trifecta a 'Standout' with your top selection for first and all your other selections to finish second or third. Just remember that in 2010 So You Think was a hot favourite but actually finished third and in 2011 the favourite Americain finished fourth which shows how difficult the Melbourne Cup can be to predict, so usually boxing your selections is the way to go.
Now, all you have to do is use a process of elimination to find those genuine chances in a field of up to 24 runners:
Here is Punterwoman's Formula for finding the Melbourne Cup trifecta based on 20 years of Melbourne Cup statistics and punting experience -
Include any runner who:
- ran on the Saturday before the Cup, regardless of where they finished.
- is an international visitor with Group form carrying 57kgs or less.
- ran a place in this years Caulfield Cup and/or last years Melbourne Cup.
- has won over 2400m or more in the last six months (since May) AND is carrying 4kgs or more under what they would be carrying at Weight For Age.
But leave out any runner who:
- is carrying 59kgs or more.
- ran in a previous Melbourne Cup in any year but finished more than 4 lengths behind the winner.
- has failed to run a place in two or more starts at 3200m or beyond.
- is aged over 7 years.
Once you have narrowed the field using this method, consider factors such as the track conditions, breeding and recent form to see if you can eliminate any others from your selections.
Applying this formula to the field of runners in the 2011 Melbourne Cup resulted in the following 6 horses being selected in race book order:
Americain (4th), Dunaden (1st), Lucas Cranach (3rd), Red Cadeux (2nd), Lost In The Moment (6th), Niwot (8th).
One more tip; if there is a horse in the Melbourne Cup that you have been following throughout the Spring Carnival, even if it doesn't fit the formula, it's probably best to put it in anyway - just so you can sleep at night.
Early betting on the Melbourne Cup 6th November 2012 is open now!
Need more Melbourne Cup Facts & Figures? Go HERE for statistics and details on the winners from the last 30 years of Melbourne Cups.
